2020/12/14 10:02:12

In the age of robo taxi!

In the age of robo taxi!

Now that we are in an era where things are connected via the Internet, each company is working on the practical application of self-driving vehicles. This time, I would like to introduce an article focusing on the future of IOT that companies are working on.

GAFA will eliminate car makers ?! Impact of "Robotaxi"

---------- Autonomous driving technology that is becoming more and more exciting. "Robotaxi" that operates unmanned is also attracting attention, and global companies such as GAFA and Tesla are all entering the market. Venture capitalist Yasumasa Yamamoto, who published his book "The Destructive Company That Will Dominate 2025," said, "If Robotaxi becomes widespread, Uber will be in jeopardy." The future is that the number of cars will be one-twentieth of what it is today. What kind of world is it ...? Mr. Yamamoto predicts. ----------

All global companies enter

GAFA is also expanding into the mobility industry, and the keyword is autonomous driving that utilizes artificial intelligence technology. Among them, I am paying attention to "Robotaxi". According to one estimate, 95% of the cars in the world are not normally used and are parked in garages. In other words, it's pretty useless. Therefore, this non-moving time is used as a taxi by utilizing automatic driving technology. That is the Robotaxi. The merit of Robotaxi is great from the viewpoint of cost. In the case of a taxi where a human driver carries passengers, it is said that about 70% of the fare is labor costs. In other words, if the robot automatically drives a taxi, this labor cost will be reduced, so it will be possible to ride for about 200 yen instead of 700 yen. Robotaxi has the potential to become widespread in the future due to the waste of vehicles that do not move, the significant reduction in fares, and the combination of these two. It is clear even if you look at the movement of GAFA. The first to move was Tesla. Since Tesla has the aspect of an automobile manufacturer in the first place, it has a strong pipe of vehicles sold in-house and customers. Google operates through a company under the umbrella of Waymo. This is not a Robo taxi, but now it is a boarding service by automatic driving with staff, but we are already developing a transfer service to the airport. Amazon also acquired a company called Zukes on June 20, 2020, and is strengthening its offensive. Development of Zukes has stopped due to the influence of the new coronavirus, and the market capitalization, which was about 300 billion yen at one time, has decreased to about 100 billion yen. As Amazon was aiming to enter the mobility industry, you would think that you made a good purchase.

Sony trying not to miss the waves

Amazon will also utilize autonomous driving technology in its own logistics business. There is no doubt that we will realize further customer first, such as cost reduction, by introducing automation to services that have been a pioneer in the logistics industry, not only for trucks but also for drones. Accidents inevitably occur in logistics, so even when considering compensation for damages to drivers, automatic and unmanned has a great advantage. What's more, I'm paying attention to the fact that Amazon probably won't end there. We expect that the knowledge gained from the automated operation of our own logistics business will be applied to Robotaxi and other businesses. Apple is also entering the market. It is reported that the development of the car has been suspended, and it is said that the focus is on the technology of autonomous driving itself, and there is no official announcement, but in California, when conducting autonomous driving experiments, it is mandatory to issue a license, and it is ranked high. Because there are many. What are you specifically trying to do and what kind of service are you thinking about? This is currently unknown. Probably because other GAFA is working on it, it is being done as a defensive measure. Or see it as a new business source. Above all, I think that it is positioned as an experiment to realize the optimum movement that Apple thinks. There are companies that have already embodied in the new means of transportation. This is Sony. Sony's camera sensor system is of high quality, and in January 2020, we announced a mobility called "VISION-S" that makes full use of its assets. The mobility industry and the entertainment industry that accompanies it are other. From the perspective of the industry, it will look like a dollar box. I think it's not a bad decision as we will continue to enter the industry from industries unrelated to automobiles.

Uber is on the alert

If Robotaxi becomes widespread, the significance of manned ride sharing will diminish, so Uber and the people involved in this business are very cautious. The reason is that Uber himself hastened the development of Robotaxi. However, Uber's ride sharing itself is already commonplace in developed countries. It must be said that Japan, which has entered the ride-sharing business of Uber, is far behind the world. Robotaxi is not the only threat to Uber. It is a new type of coronavirus. It took me a while to wait for the situation where ride sharing became widespread. Vehicles that do not know who got on are dangerous. Moreover, Uber drivers are ordinary people, unlike taxi company drivers, so thorough disinfection is not guaranteed. Sharing services, not just Uber, have been hit hard by the new coronavirus. It seems to be a contradiction, but on the other hand, I also feel that the impact of the new coronavirus is not that great. This is because proper cleaning and disinfection will solve the problem. With services like automatic disinfection, Robotaxi will grow well even in the Wiz Corona era. In the future where Uber has been eliminated and Robotaxi has become commonplace, the number of cars will decrease dramatically. Considering the above 95%, simply one-twentieth is enough, so in the extreme, the production volume of automobile manufacturers, which had produced about 1 million units a year, has dropped sharply to 50,000 units. .. Automakers will be forced to merge and shrink.

Will car makers be eliminated?

Therefore, there is a movement for automobile manufacturers to enter the Robotaxi business. This is GM (General Motors). From around 2010, there was a long-standing sense of crisis in the automobile industry that automobile manufacturers would be over once autonomous driving technology was established. In addition, GM has once experienced bankruptcy due to the Lehman shock. That's why it's a traditional big company, but it took action. We have acquired a venture called Cruise, which was founded by excellent human resources who graduated from MIT. At that time, cruises were in a state of little sales. It seems that there were criticisms that it was ridiculous to invest 100 billion yen in such a company, but it can be seen that GM had such a strong sense of crisis. After that, we are currently developing a vehicle GM "Cruise Origin" exclusively for Robotaxi, and in February 2020, there was a press release including the vehicle release. According to the press release, the robot taxi service will be launched in San Francisco by the end of 2020, including mass production of vehicles. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, it is doubtful whether it will be in time. Considering the development cost, the vehicle price may be 40 to 50 million yen before mass production. It is expensive compared to ordinary cars, but if you apply it to 1/20 of the previous car, it will be 2 million to 2.5 million yen, so it can be said that the price is set at the same level as a popular car. But of course, it will run 20 times more than conventional vehicles. Honda has invested in GM and is jointly developing the car body. Like GM, Honda can be said to be an alliance as a crisis response in the event of a major industry reform in Japan, such as that occurring in the United States in the future. In any case, GAFA is making major reforms in the automobile industry with the technology of autonomous driving as a weapon. Old-fashioned car makers who missed the wave will be either eliminated or swallowed by GAFA. This composition is the future trend.